(from Issues for Growth Vol. 18, No. 3)
1. Paralysis/Survival: This describes a situation where external events will be unknown and surprising, and companies will respond to them in a predominantly passive and reactive manner.
This, clearly, is the worst-case scenario. In this situation, "unexpected and disruptive events will increase over the next three years, and companies (and/or economies) will react by pulling into a protective shell." The external shocks could include economic developments such as the nationalization of major global industries (like oil, banking, auto) and significant disruptions to global material flows. On the political front, terrorist attacks could escalate in different parts of the world, and the U.S. led anti-terrorism coalition could fall apart. Isolationism and protectionism may be revived. Companies (could) react by trying to protect existing assets with layoffs, reduced R&D investment, reduced product development, and lower foreign direct investment. Consumers may compound the problem by reducing spending dramatically.
The bottom line in this scenario: A long, global recession
2. Slow Growth: This scenario predicts a future where external events will be known and expected, but companies will respond passively to them.
This, too, is a grim scenario, though not as irredeemably dismal as the previous one. In this case, “disruptive events with moderate impact continue, and while seen as normal, they result in an economic malaise.” This scenario would be marked by debt and currency problems in key world economies, though a full-blown long-term global recession is avoided. Unemployment would be higher but manageable, but consumer confidence would be low. Politically, the war against terrorism could head toward a stalemate situation. Companies would get used to the risks of terrorism and learn to cope with their losses. They would make modest investments.
The bottom line in this scenario: Life becomes an overpowering shade of gray
3. Thriving With Chaos: Here, external events will be unknown and surprising, but companies will respond mostly in an active and opportunistic fashion.
In this scenario life is still gray, but sunlight begins to filter through the gloom in some areas. "Unpredictable disruptive external events" would continue, but "corporate and national resolve to be successful in the face of adversity" would drive modest prosperity. While uncertainty would continue, it would be considered a cost of doing business. Companies would try to seize business opportunities amid the disruption and uncertainties, and make increasing investments in areas that seem to be potentially profitable. In the political arena, the continued global realignment of the U.S. with Russia and China would continue to open up new market opportunities, but the Islamic and developing nations would be shut out of these new alliances. The war against terrorism would continue without a clear victory.
The bottom line: Life could be better, but there’s money to be made if you know where to look.
4. Global Growth: In this scenario, external events will be known and expected, and companies will respond actively and aggressively.
This, clearly, is the best-case scenario, one in which "countries and peoples of the world recognize common goals and focus on economic development and peace as the route to permanent stability." The key features of this scenario would be that the recession proves short-lived and the business cycle would return to normal; the global coalition against terrorism would evolve into a coalition for peace and commerce, and the threat of terrorism would fade. Investments in new technologies for energy management would reduce the role of oil in Middle Eastern politics. Consumers would feel confident about the future, increase their spending, and lay the foundations of a sustained economic recovery. Trade barriers would be lowered and the developing economies would grow in tandem with the developed ones.
If these four scenarios - or a combination of them - represent what lies ahead in the next three years, what strategies should companies put in place today to deal with them? Clearly, though, neither these scenarios nor the strategies that follow from them will apply across the board. The scenarios will play out differently not only in different industries, but also in various regions of the world. Accordingly, the strategies that companies develop to cope with these situations will need to vary to reflect these differences.
It would be a mistake to allow the uncertainties that prevail today to put business decision making on hold. The future may be unclear, but one thing is certain: In today’s circumstances, scenario planning is more than a tool. It is a weapon to combat uncertainty, and the future will belong to companies and executives that wield it well.
¹ NOTE: These scenarios were excerpted from an article that was originally published: December 05, 2001 in Knowledge@Wharton. It is interesting to see how similar the possible views of the future are in 2009 when compared to 2001.