Now that there is more certainty, this is the time for Strategic Planning

 

Vol. 34, No. 9 In 2025, we celebrate our 34th year of Issues for Growth. Thank you to the many subscribers that have joined us over the years. Now over 11,000! Since 1991, we have been sending to our clients and friends, articles of interest that we think would be helpful in running their businesses. If you have colleagues you would like to add to the email list please click Subscribe here or contact Ann Comis.     [Editor's Note: Tariffs have finally been established with many major U.S. trading partners. Talks are advancing with Mexico and China. It appears that the chaotic and uncertain days of the last six months may well be beginning to move behind us. Organizations have been pleading for a more certain environment. Now, there are some very positive signs that we may be nearing an environment where we can have some realistic expectations for the future. The shift from cost containment and survival to strategy Organizations across industries have faced unprecedented uncertainty. Many businesses were forced into reactive modes—prioritizing short-term financial health (survival in some cases) over long-term strategy. But as the dust begins to settle and key variables stabilize, a new window of opportunity is opening. Now that there is more certainty, this is the time for strategic planning.  Strategic planning is not just a luxury reserved for stable times—it’s a necessity for navigating complexity with clarity. When uncertainty recedes, even slightly, it creates fertile ground for organizations to reassess, realign, and reimagine their future. Whether you're leading a corporation, managing a nonprofit, or steering a small business, the current climate offers a rare chance to pivot from reactive firefighting and hesitation to proactive growth. Why certainty matters in strategic planning Certainty doesn’t mean predictability in every detail- it means having enough clarity to make informed decisions. When interest rates stabilize, supply chains normalize, and consumer behavior becomes more predictable, leaders can begin to forecast with greater confidence. This enables:         ·    Longer-term investments: Organizations can commit resources to initiatives with multi-year horizons. ·    Talent planning: Hiring, training, and retention strategies can be aligned with future needs. ·    Innovation: R&D and product development can flourish when risk is better understood. ·    Cross-functional alignment: Departments can coordinate more effectively when strategic goals are clear. In short, certainty reduces the cost of hesitation. It allows leaders to move from “wait and see” to “plan and act.” Key Elements of Strategic Planning in a Post-Uncertainty Era Now is the time to revisit the fundamentals of strategic planning with fresh eyes. Here are six essential components to focus on:   External Environmental Assessment  Assess the external landscape: market trends, regulatory shifts, technological advancements. ·      Identify emerging opportunities and threats. ·      Incorporate scenario planning to prepare for plausible futures.  Internal Assessment ·      Conduct a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats). ·      Evaluate operational efficiency, talent capabilities, and financial health. ·      Map existing processes to identify redundancies and bottlenecks. Reaffirm or redefine your mission and vision. Strategic Initiatives ·      Prioritize initiatives that drive growth, innovation, or efficiency. Goal Setting. Set SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound). ·      Assign ownership and accountability. ·      Develop timelines, budgets, and KPIs for each initiative. ·      Align goals across departments to ensure cohesion. Execution and Monitoring ·      Create a cadence for reviewing progress (monthly, quarterly). ·      Use dashboards and visual tools to track performance. ·      Be agile—adjust strategies based on feedback and results. From Reactive to Proactive: A Cultural Shift  Strategic planning isn’t just a technical exercise—it’s a cultural transformation. Organizations that have been in survival mode may need to rebuild strategic muscles. This involves: ·    Empowering teams to think long-term and take initiative. ·    Encouraging cross-departmental collaboration to break down silos. ·    Fostering a mindset of continuous improvement, where feedback loops drive refinement.  Leaders play a critical role in modeling this shift. By communicating a clear vision and demonstrating commitment to strategic goals, they can inspire confidence and alignment throughout the organization. The Risk of Waiting Too Long While it’s tempting to wait for “perfect” certainty, that moment rarely arrives. Strategic planning thrives in the space between chaos and clarity. Organizations that act now will gain a competitive edge—seizing market share, attracting top talent, and building resilience before others catch up. Waiting too long can lead to missed opportunities, stagnation, and strategic drift. In contrast, those who embrace planning now will be better positioned to adapt to future disruptions with confidence and agility. Planning as a strategic imperative The return of certainty is not a signal to relax—it’s a call to plan. Strategic planning is the bridge between today’s stability and tomorrow’s success. It transforms ambiguity into action, and vision into value. Now is the time to identify and gather your team, sharpen your tools, and chart your course. Because in a world that’s finally offering a clearer view, those who plan boldly will lead decisively. We can help. The Mead Consulting Group has been a market leader in strategic growth and execution and scenario planning for many years. We have helped many companies clarify their strategy, execute well and outperform their peers. Check out some of the success stories of our clients. If you would like to get a jump on planning for Q4 and 2026, please contact me. Now is the time to get ahead of the competition. Best regards, Dave Mead

How AI changes the way you think

 

[Editor’s Note: Over the last decade, business owners and leaders have routinely commented about the lack of critical thinking skills in young people entering the workforce. This article from The Economist examines the impact of AI on critical thinking . -dpm] How AI changes the way you think (The Economist, July 19, 2025)  AS ANYBODY WHO has ever taken a standardised test will know, racing to answer an expansive essay question in 20 minutes or less takes serious brain power. Having unfettered access to  (AI) would certainly lighten the mental load. But as a recent study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests, that help may come at a cost. Over the course of a series of essay-writing sessions, students working with (as well as without) ChatGPT were hooked up to electroencephalograms (EEGs) to measure their brain activity as they toiled. Across the board, the AI users exhibited markedly lower neural activity in parts of the brain associated with creative functions and attention. Students who wrote with the chatbot’s help also found it much harder to provide an accurate quote from the paper that they had just produced. The findings are part of a growing body of work on the potentially detrimental effects of AI use for creativity and learning. This research points to important questions about whether the impressive short-term gains afforded by generative AI may incur a hidden long-term debt. The MIT study augments the findings of two other high-profile studies on the relationship between AI use and critical thinking. The first, by researchers at Microsoft Research, surveyed 319 knowledge workers who used generative AI at least once a week. The respondents described undertaking more than 900 tasks, from summarising lengthy documents to designing a marketing campaign, with the help of AI. According to participants’ self-assessments, only 555 of these tasks required critical thinking, such as having to review an AI output closely before passing it to a client, or revising a prompt after the AI generated an inadequate result on the first go. The rest of the tasks were deemed essentially mindless. Overall, a majority of workers reported needing either less or much less cognitive effort to complete tasks with generative-AI tools such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini or Microsoft’s own Copilot AI assistant, compared with doing those tasks without AI. Another study, by Michael Gerlich, a professor at SBS Swiss Business School, asked 666 individuals in Britain how often they used AI and how much they trusted it, before posing them questions based on a widely used critical-thinking assessment. Participants who made more use of AI scored lower across the board. Dr Gerlich says that after the study was published he was contacted by hundreds of high-school and university teachers dealing with growing AI adoption among their students who, he says, “felt that it addresses exactly what they currently experience”. Whether AI will leave people’s brains flabby and weak in the long term remains an open question. Researchers for all three studies have stressed that further work is needed to establish a definitive causal link between elevated AI use and weakened brains. In Dr Gerlich’s study, for example, it is possible that people with greater critical-thinking prowess are just less likely to lean on AI. The MIT study, meanwhile, had a tiny sample size (54 participants in all) and focused on a single narrow task. Moreover, generative-AI tools explicitly seek to lighten people’s mental loads, as many other technologies do. As long ago as the 5th century BC, Socrates was quoted as grumbling that writing is not “a potion for remembering, but for reminding”. Calculators spare cashiers from computing a bill. Navigation apps remove the need for map-reading. And yet few would argue that people are less capable as a result. There is little evidence to suggest that allowing machines to do users’ mental bidding alters the brain’s inherent capacity for thinking, says Evan Risko, a professor of psychology at the University of Waterloo who, along with a colleague, Sam Gilbert, coined the term “cognitive offloading” to describe how people shrug off difficult or tedious mental tasks to external aids. The worry is that, as Dr Risko puts it, generative AI allows one to “offload a much more complex set of processes”. Offloading some mental arithmetic, which has only a narrow set of applications, is not the same as offloading a thought process like writing or problem-solving. And once the brain has developed a taste for offloading, it can be a hard habit to kick. The tendency to seek the least effortful way to solve a problem, known as “cognitive miserliness”, could create what Dr Gerlich describes as a feedback loop. As AI-reliant individuals find it harder to think critically, their brains may become more miserly, which will lead to further offloading. One participant in Dr Gerlich’s study, a heavy user of generative AI, lamented “I rely so much on AI that I don’t think I’d know how to solve certain problems without it.” Many companies are looking forward to the possible productivity gains from greater adoption of ai. But there could be a sting in the tail. “Long-term critical-thinking decay would likely result in reduced competitiveness,” says Barbara Larson, a professor of management at Northeastern University. Prolonged AI use could also make employees less creative. In a study at the University of Toronto, 460 participants were instructed to propose imaginative uses for a series of everyday objects, such as a car tyre or a pair of trousers. Those who had been exposed to ideas generated by AI tended to produce answers deemed less creative and diverse than a control group who worked unaided. When it came to the trousers, for instance, the chatbot proposed stuffing a pair with hay to make half of a scarecrow—in effect suggesting trousers be reused as trousers. An unaided participant, by contrast, proposed sticking nuts in the pockets to make a novelty bird feeder. There are ways to keep the brain fit. Dr Larson suggests that the smartest way to get ahead with AI is to limit its role to that of “an enthusiastic but somewhat naive assistant”. Dr Gerlich recommends that, rather than asking a chatbot to generate the final desired output, one should prompt it at each step on the path to the solution. Instead of asking it “Where should I go for a sunny holiday?”, for instance, one could start by asking where it rains the least, and proceed from there. Members of the Microsoft team have also been testing AI assistants that interrupt users with “provocations” to prompt deeper thought. In a similar vein, a team from Emory and Stanford Universities have proposed rewiring chatbots to serve as “thinking assistants” that ask users probing questions, rather than simply providing answers. One imagines that Socrates might heartily approve. Potential measures to keep people’s brains active   Such strategies might not be all that useful in practice, however, even in the unlikely event that model-builders tweaked their interfaces to make chatbots clunkier, or slower. They could even come at a cost. A study by Abilene Christian University in Texas found that AI assistants which repeatedly jumped in with provocations degraded the performance of weaker coders on a simple programming task. Other potential measures to keep people’s brains active are more straightforward, if also rather more bossy. Overeager users of generative AI could be required to come up with their own answer to a query, or simply wait a few minutes, before they’re allowed to access the AI. Such “cognitive forcing” may lead users to perform better, according to Zana Buçinca, a researcher at Microsoft who studies these techniques, but will be less popular. “People do not like to be pushed to engage,” she says. Demand for workarounds would therefore probably be high. In a demographically representative survey conducted in 16 countries by Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, 47% of respondents said they would use generative-AI tools even if their employer forbade it. The technology is so young that, for many tasks, the human brain is still the sharpest tool in the toolkit. But in time both the consumers of ai and its regulators will have to assess whether its wider benefits outweigh any cognitive costs. If stronger evidence emerges that ai makes people less intelligent, will they care? ■                                                             _________________________ What do you think? Best regards,       Dave Mead

Use Subtraction to Boost Efficiency—Without Weakening Your Business (HBR July 1, 2025)

 [Editor’s Note:  I recently saw this article in the Harvard Business Review and thought I would include it here because it reinforces one of our basic beliefs - create the simplest, direct means to execute a process. It's usually better, faster, cheaper! -dpm]

Use Subtraction to Boost Efficiency—Without Weakening Your Business (HBR July 1, 2025)

When uncertainty hits, it’s tempting to start making cuts. But indiscriminate subtraction can backfire, making systems brittle, reducing visibility, and draining long-term value from your business. Before making any cut, apply this triple test: Will it improve efficiency, build resilience, and elevate prominence? If the answer is no, rethink it. If the answer is yes, approach the subtraction in one of six ways. 

Eliminate what no longer adds value. Cut components, steps, or rules that don’t serve a clear function. Done right, this boosts speed, reduces costs, and sharpens focus without undermining trust or capability. 

Substitute complexity with simplicity. Swap out high-maintenance tools or workflows with simpler options that meet the same need—faster, cheaper, and more reliably. 

Consolidate overlapping functions. Merge tasks, systems, or touchpoints into integrated solutions. This reduces duplicative efforts, improves continuity, and enhances the user experience. 

Hide complexity behind clean interfaces. Keep systems powerful under the hood, but conceal nonessential details so users only see what they need, reducing overload while keeping functionality intact. 

Pause, don’t delete. Suspend features or services that aren’t needed now but may return. This preserves flexibility and avoids burning bridges. 

Abstract the backend. Use interface layers to simplify user interaction with complex systems, making advanced functionality accessible and scalable

Be ready when the fever breaks

[Editor’s Note: We are living in a period of record uncertainty and unpredictability. Tarrifs on, tariffs off ; supply cain disruption; higher interst rates. It remains to be seen if this disruption in the global economy will lead to recession, inflation, stagflation, or a return to a sound economy. Companies are paralyzed by the uncertainty; others are overwhelmed by the potential scale of the disruption. 

The Middle Market M&A market has been stagnant for more than 18 months with very little activity. In 2024, we advised clients that were good, but not great performers, not to go to market, but rather to work on improving their companies to be ready for the next upturn in the M&A market. The stagnation in M&A activity has continued into the sixth month of 2025. Tremendous sums of capital are sitting on the sidelines. Investors desperately need to put capital to work. Many companies will need to sell to provide liquidity for aging business owners.

One thing is certain: The current level of uncertainty is unsustainable. The basic rule of Physics (and Economics) is that, after a "disturbance," things ultimately return to a state of equiliibrium. Many professionals believe that this will ultimately happen by the end of this year. dpm]

Be ready when the fever breaks

When the markets do return to normalcy, it will likely not be a slow move. The pent-up supply of companies and the pent-up supply of capital and demand for new transactions will likely result in a "gold rush" level of activity. Those companies that are best prepared will realize an unprecedented surge of interest from strategic and financial buyers. We are advising our clients to " Be prepared when the fever breaks." You may not be able to work on everything now, but work on the things you can so that your company can present in the best light.

How best to position your company to be attractive to buyers:

 1.   Demonstrate Strong Financial Performance

a. Historical Financials

 b. Operating Cash Flow

*   Focus on hitting projected revenue and earnings numbers

*   Review net profitability of customers and products

 2.   Maintain "clean" financials

a. Audited or "auditable" Financial Statements

*   Have your financial statements audited with a reputable firm to add  credibility

*   Use GAAP accounting. If not, identify how practices differ from GAAP

 b. Income Statement Adjustments and "Add-backs"

*   Buyers are skeptical of earnings that rely on substantial add-backs (one-time, non-recurring charges, private company expenses, etc.)

 

3.   Diversify your customer & supplier base

*   Diversification signifies a healthy business and reduces risk

*   How stable are your top suppliers? How stable are their terms?

*   Do you have multiple suppliers for critical components/services?

4.   Develop a Strategic Growth Plan

*   Maintain a clear strategy and be able to demonstrate your history of execution

*   Be able to articulate specific future growth opportunities

*   Position your company to take advantage of them

* Remember: A buyer needs to see a potential Return on Investment

 

5.   Build a capable Management Team

* Invest in training and key strategic hires, if needed

* Focus on building a deep management team that can thrive without your continued leadership

 

6.   Eliminate potential "Gotchas"(these are items that could result in significant discounts to value)

*   Maintain legal documentation (licenses, regulatory filings, contracts, intellectual property, incorporation, etc.)

*   Clear title to all assets

*   Document processes and procedures

*   Resolve legal disputes, environmental issues, etc.

 

7.   Build a team of Qualified Advisors

*   Minimize distractions from running your business effectively

*  Get advice from professionals who have "done it before" and who have expertise in areas you do not 

*   Beware of advisors that outstep their areas of expertise and pretend to do it all

 

Are you and your company ready if a buyer appeared on the radar?

Most business owners who have executed a successful sale of their business will tell you the most important thing is: BE PREPARED.

 

Selling a business is very different than operating a business. As a business owner you know your industry, your product or service, your customers and your markets. Most business owners will only sell a business once in their lifetimes - and it can be by far the most important financial transaction of their lifetime.

We can help. The Mead Consulting Group has helped many clients prepare for successful sales transactions ranging from $10M to $350M in transaction value. We help companies increase the value of their businesses leading up to a transaction, minimize the things that cause potential buyers to discount the price, prepare to best position the company, and assist the owners in building a transaction team. Contact me if you would like to discuss.

Best regards,

Dave Mead      

The Search for Opportunity in a World of Turmoil

[Editor’s Note: With the announcement of the latest series of tariffs, most economists see a period of increased costs for consumers and businesses, supply chain disruption, and decreased demand for higher-priced goods. It remains to be seen if this disruption in the global economy will lead to recession, runaway inflation, or stagflation. Many companies are paralyzed by the uncertainty; others are overwhelmed by the potential scale of the disruption.  I thought it might be a good time to reflect on how some companies have used previous periods of disruption and downturn and turned it into opportunity and long-term competitive advantage.  – dpm]

________________________________________ Think back to several large disruptions – DotCom Bust /Recession in 1999, Great financial crisis in 2008, Covid in 2020. Most companies hunkered down, dramatically reduced costs and tried to ride out the storm. Some managed to survive, some didn’t. There were companies that continued to invest in their brand and product during these times, recognizing opportunity to be prepared when demand came back. Below are some examples: Apple (2001-2003 during DotCom Bust and recession) continued to invest in product development, releasing the iPod in 2001 and laying the groundwork for iTunes and the iPhone. Their competitors were pulling back on product development. It resulted in a huge opportunity for Apple to capture market share. Lego (during 2008 Financial Crisis) continued to invest in innovation and product design during a period when demand for toys and games was in the tank. Lego launched new product lines (e.g., Lego Friends), increased market share, and became one of the world’s largest toy companies by 2014. AirBnb (launched in 2008) Saw the opportunity to promote low-cost travel options during the downturn and scaled rapidly as consumers looked for less expensive alternatives to hotels. Great product-market fit in a tight economy! Firehouse Subs (grew through 2008 downturn) Saw the opportunity to double down on franchise expansion by taking advantage of cheaper real estate in secondary markets. Market share increased as competitors were retreating, yet consumers were still spending in affordable meals. Fastenal (Started small, scaled through 2000 and 2008 downturns) As an industrial and construction fastener supplier, it reinvested heavily in inventory and distribution centers. It became the “Go -To supplier when others were out of stock. It captured huge market share, especially in underserved areas. What is your company’s unique opportunity? Is your market ripe for new ideas, a new delivery model, lower cost alternatives to take advantage of the new realities? The Mead Consulting Group has helped companies identify and execute on opportunities in the last several market disruptions. One example - In several situations, companies transformed from “low -or-no” margin product sales to comprehensive product/service solutions with good margins that dramatically expanded market opportunities. In others, companies were able to offer a new delivery model that addressed customer issues, or reduced cost. Don’t be a victim of this market disruption.  Let us help you be active participants with new opportunities in this new world economic situation. Contact me for more information. Mead Consulting Group has worked with many companies to help them transition to a more positive environment that sees the potential and collaboratively works to achieve possibilities. Contact me at (303) 660-8135 or meaddp@meadconsultinggroup.com to explore how to begin to transition your organization to one more focused on executing the strategic future. Best regards, Dave Mead

Abundance vs. Scarcity Mindset. Which do you have?

Abundance vs. Scarcity Mindset. Which do you have? Editor's Note: Can you believe it - we are beginning to close out Q1 of 2025. What kind of Organization do you have? What kind of Leader or Team Member are you? In many cases it comes down to whether you have an "abundance" or "scarcity" mindset.  I thought these two graphics might be good to ponder.  Another note: Regardless of your politics, as I re-read this, I recognized that our country is currently led by a president who has many or the charateristics of a "scarcity" mindset.-dpm] ___________________________ Collaborator or "Smartest person in the room"; Seek the credit or Share the credit; Horde information or Share information. Are you willing to invest to achieve a greater outcome? Whether you are building a team or a company, which traits/attributes do you want in yourself and others? The best organizations do not tolerate "scarcity mindsets" - they sap the energy and vitality out of an organization. Individuals and Team Members Leaders Scarcity breeds employee flight. In today's environment, employees who are the best and brightest do not want to work in an environment with a scarcity mindset - certainly not with leaders with that mindset. We can help. Mead Consulting Group has worked with many companies to help them transition to a more positive environment that sees the potential and collaboratively works to achieve possibilities. Contact me at (303) 660-8135 or meaddp@meadconsultinggroup.com to explore how to begin to transition your organization to one more focused on executing the strategic future. Best regards, Dave Mead

"I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination."   _________ The future has never been more uncertain, but your business can always be prepared with flexible approaches to planning and execution ________

For more information, see our website www.meadconsultinggroup.com  or  contact Dave Mead at (303) 660-8135 or meaddp@MeadConsultingGroup.com

The importance of scenario planning in preparing for the Trump Presidency

 The importance of scenario planning in preparing for the Trump Presidency

There is much optimism in the business community about the new Trump administration. There are more predictions than one can count. The one sure thing is that the pundits have been wrong predicting the future much more than

they have been right. But with the many bold statements and actions coming out of Washington, how sure are you about the future?

 

How well are you prepared for what you think will happen in the future? How well are you prepared for what you don’t think will happen?

 

·       What impact will tariffs have? On prices? On supply chains? What will be the impact of foreign retaliation?

·       How much will deportation impact the labor pool?

·       What will be short-term impacts of government cuts?

·       Will certain actions trigger a new round of inflation?

 

One thing is for certain - when government gets involved with many broad sweeping actions – There will be unintended consequences?

In 2025 more than ever, we are seeing companies in one of three camps: 1. Paralyzed by uncertainty; 2. Certain they are right with their view predicting the future; 3. Planning for multiple scenarios.

The Mead Consulting Group has been helping companies with scenario planning for many years. Companies that do scenario planning, have management teams that are prepared to act quickly to changes in market variables. Check out our client success stories for examples of companies from $15M to $200M that we have helped.

 

If you want to discuss how your organization can be best prepared for an uncertain future, please contact me.

____________________

The Mead Consulting Group helps dozens of companies and organizations -like yours - every year with scenario planning ,strategic planning & execution, and strategic business coaching. Clients that utilize these processes consistently outperform their competition.

 If you would like to discuss your situation, please contact me to set up a complimentary meeting. Dave Mead at (303)660-8135 or meaddp@meadconsultinggroup.com.